What is defense?

May 18, 2012 | Author: lotterblad

 

“Before the game, Battier was given his special package of information. “He’s the only player we give it to,” Morey says. “Most players are like golfers. You don’t want them swinging while they’re thinking.” Knowing the odds, Battier can pursue an inherently uncertain strategy with total certainty. He can devote himself to a process and disregard the outcome of any given encounter. “I try to prepare for my opponent as thoroughly as possible. I want to know every angle on the man I am guarding to give me an edge.  I read many, many pages and go over strengths and weaknesses many times before a game. ‘Proper preparation prevents poor performance.’ “- Shane Battier(From Michael Lewis article in the NY times magazine)

 

Ulrich was from Canada and he was always venturing into the mixed games from time to time. For an initial period he would win medium amounts, being paid off on his Aces in hold’em or getting calls on his big bets in PLO. This initial honeymoon would often end because of that most important of traits: memory. Because Ulrich was new to the game no one had stats on him or notes about his play. He was able to occupy the space of an unknown, a possible maverick gambler who just may be at it from time to time. But games and countless hands would go by and everyone would solve Ulrich. He knew the value hands but… He was lazy in his defense. He knew how to start with the right hands but would get bluffed on scary boards where he was unlikely to have anything. Eventually,  Ulrich would struggle to get paid off on his hands and the costs of playing would come clawing back at his bankroll.

Playing good defensive poker and good offensive poker require different approaches. Whether you have the odds to call down with middle pair and a bad kicker in limit hold’em depends upon your successfully parsing your opponents possible hands and image of you. Playing good offense on the other hand requires only that you find an opponent that incorrectly assesses what you have. Ulrich could only find so many players that couldn’t assess what he had, and when they ran out he was stuck.

When I play cash games the defensive side of my poker game is really tested. The players in tournaments can be beaten by pure offensive poker and are less experienced about how to play most situations. In tournaments there tends to be less of a selection pressure placed on preparation and defensive skills and more placed on general game knowledge and playing a ton of hours. Ulrich would make an ok tournament player.

My approach to defense comes from the styles of Shane Battier and Brad Gilbert(Agassi and Murray’s tennis coach) . My goal is to learn all I can, take notes, and to find the inefficient spot for my opponent and contest.

What is  poker defense to me? It’s committing to showing down a set of hands based on the value of the hands revealed by data and principles of deception detection adapted to the opponent.

It’s shutting down you opponents production, not just doing things to ensure your own play isn’t easily beatable. Defense is detecting deception at a rate that is better than the odds I’m receiving, or re-attacking an opponent who I think is getting out of line, sometimes with only the expectation of breaking even.

 

“Sometimes your mind is better when you don’t instruct it what to do, as people who take showers find out.”-Nassim Taleb

Posted in Poker defense, Pre-game strategy | Leave a Comment

Countering recent history in poker

May 18, 2012 | Author: lotterblad

 

 

Often when I’m playing poker I find myself to be extremely biased in decision making. This is especially the case when there has been a striking or unusual hand that has been played recently and for whatever reason becomes “sticky” in my mind.

 

Often, but not always, knowing my opponents tendencies and unusual plays can be an important part of  my profit, but recent history can also be overblown and overweighted. In limit hold’em in particular there are a few situations in which I am marred by a bias of availability.

 

  1. If I have looked up an opponent on the river with a marginal hand I will be much more likely to fold the next time I am in a similar situation regardless of the whether the opponent and situation warrants looking up again

Counter strategy- Use a notebook for post session review to keep track of peoples tendencies. Estimate how often you are shown a better hand and know that in order to fold you have to have the data to support a big fold(you don’t need much of a reason to call).

 

  1. If there has been a hand I was in where an opponent played a hand aggressively on the turn, I will be much more likely to raise the next time I am confronted with a remotely similar card situation, even if the opponent and context are completely different.

Counter strategy- Keep track of peoples tendencies and place them into categories. Use these categories to weight your decisions, rather than recent history.

 

  1. If I suffer a large loss at No-Limit Hold’em or Pot Limit Omaha I am less likely to choose to play that game the next session even if my win rate and variance numbers tell me its still better to play the big bet game.

Counter strategy- consult a longer term set of records to choose your games and hours. Don’t diverge from the plan unless you spot a juicy game.

 

4. USE RECENT HISTORY!

 

If you know the big pots that your opponents have lost, try and think of some situations they might be leery of.  This will add to your knowledge of the best possible places to bluff. Specifically you should seek to create an analogous situation in which your opponents will be more likely to fold or call given the hands that have occurred in the session, or big pots that have occured in the past few months against you.

Posted in Big Bet Games, Limit Hold'em, Limit Poker, No Limit Hold'em, Pot Limit Omaha | Leave a Comment

Beating the Loose Aggressive

May 10, 2012 | Author: lotterblad

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It is no surprise to me that loose aggressive play dominates tournaments, as this is the proper counter strategy to beating people that fold too much. I have often read articles about loose aggressive play and what can be done to counter it. The answer to this is complex and often I read that you need to “reraise them” or “just call and let them bluff”. Yet both of these statements are horrible advice as they give no context as when to apply them. Just as there is an opportunity to increase your chips against the players who play to tight there is also an opportunity to take them from people who raise too much.

 

The Mindset of the Loose Aggressive and the reason they play the way they do

“I just can’t seem to get any hands,” says the weak tight tourney pro bemoaning his luck. I hear this statement all the time when I play tournaments and whenever I do I know that I like my chances against whoever says this. Because I don’t think that this player or others like him are unlucky. I don’t know about you but whenever I play poker it’s tough to get dealt premium cards. Yet his statement reveals to me his inner strategy and mindset. To only bet or raise with near lock cards which is a strategy that can be countered in a high ante game like the middle and late stages of NLHE tournaments.

Many of the most successful tournament players today employ a loose aggressive strategy. When people watch on television and see someone raising with T8s or 27o they often coin these people as maniacs. Yet these people are often not maniacs at all in the sense that they are simply looking for opportunities rather than waiting for hands to win the tournament. Every hand should be viewed as a chance to increase your chip stack as well as your chances of winning the tournament. Getting a good hand like 99-AA or AJ-AK can be great opportunity to increase your chip stack. Yet there are many others that the “waiting for a hand” players overlook. The loose aggressive players believe that how far they go in a tournament usually depends not only on the cards they are getting, but the cards their opponents are. If no one gets anything that great and they get the right opportunities they can steal lots of pots and win chips without having to showdown any big hands.

 

Stealing the LAG player’s chips is a little harder and depends a lot on your position, the stack sizes, their perception of you, as well as your actual cards. Out of position with big stacks I like to finish the hand before the flop no matter what I hold as I believe they will more often than not outplay me after the flop, either by raising, calling, and folding when it is correct to do so. In position I think there is flexibility. Calling their raise with marginal hands on the button in hopes of flopping a big hand or outplaying them on scary boards has merit. As well as calling with a big hand in hope that you get a favorable flop and they misread your hand. All of these plays should be done with the proper frequency along with the plays that you would normally make. Doing any of them all the time will lead your opponents to start to pick on what you are doing. Never doing them will lead to getting run over.

I would like as an example to have you play hand against me in a tournament.

Blinds are 1K/2k and its 7 handed when this hand comes up. This tournament started with 98 players and is now down to 14. Average chips are around 25,000.
Stack sizes
Me(30,000)
You (60,000)


It’s folded around to me in the co and I raise to 5000 which is my standard amount

You are the bb whose blind I’ve raised every time the last three orbits. I’ve been raising quite a few hands and always to the same amount. From our history I clearly perceive you as a “waiting for a hand” player who isn’t going to tangle with me without a very strong hand. You look down to see 98. Should you

A) Fold

B) Call

C) Reraise

Some would say fold here as they have a big stack and don’t want to get involved. Some would say call as you have a nice suited connecter that could flop a big hand. I would like calling if you were on the button and had the intention not just of flopping a hand but restealing when your opponent appears weak or the board may seem especially scary. I actually think you should reraise to 12k-15k. This effectively bets my stack without actually betting my stack. I will probably see this as a huge hand and will pass many hands that currently beat yours. I’ve been picking on you and you can probably take this pot with any hand here as it’s less likely I have a big pair or AK-AQ given that I’ve been raising quite a bit.

In the actual hand the player called the 3k. He chose the “call him” strategy out of position which really plays right into my hands.
The flop comes
J 9 7 (11k pot)

A fantastic flop for you should you:

A) Check with the intention of calling if I bet

B) Bet out

C) Check with the intention of raising if I bet

D) Check with the intention of folding if I bet

 

It’s unlikely I have a big pair (QQ-AA) and even if I do you’re a slight favorite. You could bet out but you’re really pot committed if I raise with your flush draw + pair + gutshot, plus loose aggressive players pretty much always bet the flop. You must use a combination of check raising, betting out, and occasionally check calling to combat them. I like check raising all-in here. This gives you a chance to pick up some money that I will likely bet if you check as well as take down the pot uncontested if I don’t call your check raise.


In the actual hand the opponent bet out 5K. I really don’t like this bet at all from this hand. It gets folded to by hands that have absolutely no piece of the board like (AK-AQ, AT, A7-A2, KQ) and raised by hands that are ahead or only slightly behind (AA-JJ, 99, 77, AJ, KJ, QJ, TJ, T8).

In the actual hand I reraised to 25K. So it’s 20K to call into a 41k pot. Should you

A) Call

B) Fold

You call and I show A:heart: J:clubs: . I would call as well with your hand although I wouldn’t have put myself in your position. I probably would have passed my AJ if you reraised pre flop and if you had check raised all in on the flop it would have been a tough call based on my viewing you as a rocky player. The way you played this you forced yourself to make all the tough decisions and made mine pretty easy. You also put half your chips at risk on a virtual coin flip and nowhere in the hand did you give yourself a great opportunity of winning it uncontested. You might have won uncontested with your weak lead on the flop but it’s unlikely.

 

The reason that the loose aggressive players have been so successful over the past few years is that they have flat out stolen the tournaments from the players waiting for hands. If you’d like to have greater success in tournaments you must learn to steal from the thief.

 

Posted in Big Bet Games, No Limit Hold'em | Leave a Comment